Sabin Roman

Published On


Page Range

pp. 27–54


  • English

Print Length

28 pages



2. Theories and Models: Understanding and Predicting Societal Collapse

Why do societies collapse? This chapter offers approaches to understanding which quantitative and qualitative models of societal dynamics can predict societal collapse and which exogenous and endogenous factors contribute to it.


Sabin Roman

Research Associate at Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

Sabin Roman is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who works on the long-term modelling of societal evolution; having developed models for the historical dynamics of Easter Island, the Maya civilization, the Roman Empire, and Imperial China. He employs methods from dynamical systems theory, network science, stochastic processes, agent-based modelling, and machine learning. He has a background in mathematical physics, with a master’s degree from the University of Edinburgh. He obtained a PhD in Complex Systems Simulation from the University of Southampton, where his research focused on the mathematical modelling of societal collapse.